A revolution is a struggle to the death between the future and the past.
– Fidel Castro
The future is here, and Father Time wins again…
Fidel Castro passed away last week at the ripe old age of 90. The Cuban dictator outlasted 11 American presidents. He outlived all of his adversaries and ended up clinging to power longer than any head of state other than Queen Elizabeth II.
That’s a pretty good run…
Say what you want about Castro’s brutality, the guy knew how to keep his power. He was perhaps the most wanted man in the world as long as he held said power.
That resulted in over 600 assassination attempts. And, I’ll tell ya, some of these assassination attempts were downright silly…
Most of us have heard about the failed plot to kill Castro with an exploding cigar. But there were so many others…
One involved active mob bosses, who recommended poisoning Castro with pills. Johnny Roselli, a Las Vegas mobster, was given the task.
In documents that often read like a cheap detective novel, the story is outlined: The pitch was made to Roselli at the Hilton Plaza Hotel in New York. The contact led the agency to two top mobsters, Momo Salvatore Giancana and Santos Trafficant, who were both on a U.S. list of most-wanted men, who seemed more interested.
Giancana, who was known as Sam Gold, suggested firearms might be a problem and said using a potent pill that could be slipped into Castro’s food or drink might work.
Eventually, six pills of “high lethal content” were provided to Juan Orta, identified as a Cuban official who had been receiving kickback payments from gambling interests, who still had access to Castro and was in a financial bind.
“After several weeks of reported attempts, Orta apparently got cold feet and asked out of the assignment. He suggested another candidate who made several attempts without success,” the document said.
In several other attempts, the U.S. tried to exploit Castro’s love of scuba diving.
Bill Clinton’s administration tried to load explosives into a Caribbean conch shell, so that when Castro dove to inspect it at his favorite diving spot, it would explode and kill him.
The plan was abandoned…
On another occasion, the CIA also tried to poison his wetsuit.
The closest the CIA ever came to killing Castro was as simple as it is silly: poison his milkshake.
In 1963 — again with the help of mobsters — the CIA was ready to slip a poison pill into Castro’s chocolate milkshake. But, as fate would have it, the pill got stuck in the freezer at the Havana Hilton and tore when the “assassin waiter” tried to execute the plot.
All told, here is the rundown of assassination attempts by each sitting U.S. president:
- Dwight D. Eisenhower (1959–1961): 38
- John F. Kennedy (1961–1963): 42
- Lyndon B. Johnson (1963–1969): 72
- Richard Nixon (1969–1974): 184
- Jimmy Carter (1977–1981): 64
- Ronald Reagan (1981–1989): 197
- George H. W. Bush (1989–1993): 16
- Bill Clinton (1993–2000): 21
You can watch the documentary about how we tried to kill Castro right here.
For our purposes, however, let’s look into the ways we can invest in Cuba in a post-Castro regime…
In a rare admission of weakness, Fidel ceded control of the government to his brother Raul in 2006. Raul has publicly stated that he plans to resign in 2018. In that case, the U.S. can work on making Cuba into the commercial partner that will benefit both countries. With the Castros out of the way, there should be an opening for all kinds of business in a land that has been hurting for it…
Now, Obama relaxed trade restrictions with Cuba in 2014 — through executive order — and plenty of investors are worried about what a Trump presidency will mean. He hasn’t done much to quell the worry…
“If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate the deal,” Donald Trump tweeted.
Like most things the Donald says, I think that is a lot of bluster and not much substance.
There is simply too much opportunity in Cuba for us to sit idly by and watch. They will reach an agreement, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Donald Trump wants a Trump hotel or casino in Havana.
Now, I’m not betting on those intangibles. If Cuba opens up, there will be several opportunities…and you can actually invest in them all in one fell swoop…
The obvious play here is The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund Inc. (NASDAQ: CUBA). It jumped almost 20% on the news of Castro’s death.
The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund Inc. (CUBA) has holdings in several major players…
MasTec, Inc. (NYSE: MTZ) 7.59%
It engineers, procures, constructs, and maintains the infrastructures that enable electric transmission and distribution, oil, and natural gas pipelines.
Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE: CPA) 6.66%
Copa Holdings provides airline passenger and cargo services in Latin America.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 6.25% (NYSE: RCL)
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates as a cruise company. The company operates cruises under the Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Pullmantur, Azamara Club Cruises, CDF Croisières de France, and TUI Cruises brand names.
Lennar Corporation 5.75% (NYSE: LEN)
Lennar Corporation operates primarily through the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes to first-time, move-up, and active adult homebuyers, as well as the purchase, development, and sale of residential land.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: NCLH) 4.46%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. operates as a cruise line company that offers various itineraries. It provides cruises ranging from one-day to 180-day itineraries to approximately 510 destinations worldwide. The company offers its products through independent travel agents, wholesalers, and tour operators. It operates 24 ships under the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands with approximately 46,500 Berths.
This fund plays on all of the major companies that will do great business once Cuba and the U.S. agree to reasonable terms.
But there is another under-the-radar play you should know about…
There are only two countries where one of America’s most iconic brands is not sold. That brand is Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO).
One is North Korea, and it isn’t going to open its markets anytime soon.
The other is Cuba, a nation of 11.5 million people.
As we mentioned, Cuba is slowly opening its borders, and Coca-Cola is going to be sold there soon.
Plus, demand is virtually baked in already.
Cuba was one of the first countries outside of the U.S.A. to have its own Coke bottling plant back in 1906.
It even had a drink popularized at the turn of the century called the Cuba Libre. Mix Bacardi and Coke and add a twist of lime and you have an iconic mixed drink.
Even Fidel Castro himself revealed on several occasions his love for the drink. Alex Castro, one of the eight children publicly recognized by the revolutionary, told the press that Coke would be welcome again.
The demand and interest is certainly there. As the PanAm Post reported, Coke occasionally finds its way into Cuba.
Cuban-born Karel Becerra, an international relations worker with a Cuban/Venezuelan democracy advocacy group, talked to the publication.
Becerra tried his first can of Coke as an adult: “I remember that the can came to my town in the hands of my grandmother, who got it through the aunt of a friend of a friend. We shared it among ten people. I’ll never forget my uncle’s face when he tasted it.”
“After taking a sip, my uncle said, ‘Such a good thing done by these bad people,’” Becerra laughed.
As Cuba continues to open up, one company is poised to capture a lion’s share of the business. In the longer term, it could even open a new bottling plant on the island.
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: KOF) is the world’s largest franchise bottler of Coke products in the world.
The company produces and distributes in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Columbia, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and the Philippines. In total, the company has 64 bottling facilities and serves a population of roughly 350 million through more than 2,800,000 retailers.
If Cuba opens up — which I’m sure it will — KOF should do very, very well.
In the meantime, we’ll be watching how the President-Elect handles this historic opportunity…
